Central Asia: Can Expanded Trade Pacify an Unsettled Region?

Originally published by EurasiaNet.org

by Joshua Kucera EurasiaNet.org

Central Asia: Can Expanded Trade Pacify an Unsettled Region?

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton worked quietly and diligently during her recent trip through Central and South Asia to lay the groundwork for a regional stabilization plan, dubbed the “New Silk Road.” The vision sees expanded trade as the balm that can heal the region’s wounds.

The New Silk Road aims to stimulate regional trade between Afghanistan and its neighbors. At its most ambitious, it envisions Central Asia as a trade hub between Europe and Asia, as it was in the days of the old Silk Road. Clinton promoted it on her recent trip through the region, including stops in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. In the coming weeks, she will continue to make a diplomatic push to enlist allies' support for the vision.

As Clinton sees it, commodity and energy exports have the ability to lift regional economies. Trade, in turn, could naturally suppress Islamic militant tendencies. “Turkmen gas fields could help meet both Pakistan’s and India’s growing energy needs and provide significant transit revenues for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Tajik cotton could be turned into Indian linens. Furniture and fruit from Afghanistan could find its way to the markets of Astana or Mumbai and beyond,” Clinton said about the Silk Road strategy during a September speech at the United Nations.

As yet, there are few details on how the United States can make its regional trade vision turn into reality. Washington has identified up to 40 infrastructure projects that could be part of the plan, according to a US government official, and will also work to reduce legal and procedural barriers to trade, like onerous and corrupt border-crossing procedures. Clinton will attempt to gain allied support at two upcoming conferences, one November 2 in Istanbul and another in December in Bonn, Germany.

The United States needs to quickly develop an implementation plan if the strategy is to succeed, said S. Frederick Starr, chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute in Washington, DC. Starr cautioned that the State Department's version of the plan, as he saw it so far, needed to focus more closely on the “software” or border regulations, rather than on infrastructure. He also saw a need to develop a plan for short-, medium- and long-term projects. He proposed starting with relatively easy-to-implement but high-profile projects like truck convoys along a few key corridors. “Skeptics abound,” he told EurasiaNet.org. “We must prove to them that the United States can deliver tangible results that positively affect peoples’ lives, and do so in the short term.”

Starr has promoted a Silk Road vision for several years. The State Department has long been wary of the plan, with officials initially dismissing it as unworkable. But it began to gain favor last year at US Central Command, and its commander at the time, Gen. David Petraeus. Since Marc Grossman became President Obama's special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, replacing the late Richard Holbrooke earlier this year, the State Department has come around to support the strategy.

Speaking in Islamabad on October 21, Clinton said: “We want to advance together the vision of a New Silk Road, which would increase regional economic integration and boost cross-border trade and investments between Pakistan and all of her neighbors.” The next day in Tajikistan, Clinton said she discussed the strategy with President Imomali Rahmon and “appreciated the president’s enthusiastic support for this vision.” In Tashkent she discussed the strategy “in some detail” to President Islam Karimov, according to a senior State Department official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Doubts remain about the strategy's feasibility. The State Department, in its public statements on the plan, has highlighted a handful of existing or proposed projects on which the New Silk Road could be modeled, including a free-trade agreement signed last year between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline. Skeptics note that the Pakistan-Afghanistan agreement, which was laboriously, personally brokered by Holbrooke, hasn’t yet been implemented. And implementation appears unlikely in the foreseeable future, due to strained bilateral relations. In a similar vein, versions of the TAPI pipeline have been on the drawing board since the 1990s, but insecurity in Afghanistan has scared away companies that might have the capital to complete the project.

With US and NATO troops scheduled to depart by 2014, the security situation is likely to decline even further, a problem that the Silk Road plan's boosters acknowledge. “We have continued insecurity and instability in Afghanistan,” Sham Bathija, senior economic adviser to President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan, said at a recent conference in Washington on the strategy. “Yet we have no choice but to forge ahead.”

The Silk Road project may be making too many geopolitical assumptions, especially in the area of diplomatic relations among regional states, suggested George Gavrilis, an expert on Central Asia and borders at the Washington, D.C., think tank The Hollings Center. He noted that many of the countries in the region seem locked in persistent diplomatic spats with their neighbors; Pakistan with Afghanistan and India, Uzbekistan with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Trade agreements are fragile and vulnerable to political difficulties, as evidenced by the fact that the border between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan has been closed for 18 months, following last summer's violence in southern Kyrgyzstan. The border only reopened this week. “I love the idea [of the New Silk Road] but I just don't see how it can be implemented,” Gavrilis said.

Another potential pitfall is the cost of infrastructure projects. “Unless the job is funded, it ain't going to happen,” said Juan Miranda, Director General of the Central and West Asia Department of the Asian Development Bank, which is a supporter of the project and has been carrying out a related infrastructure project, the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, for several years. “So we have to think about that and it will be a challenge.”

Obama administration officials are mindful of a domestic political environment that is opposed to new government spending, has emphasized that it doesn't plan to allocate a lot of money on the Silk Road project. “With governments all around the world facing economic challenges, we have to focus on ways to make this work with limited government support,” said Robert Hormats, undersecretary of state for economic, energy and agricultural affairs, in a recent speech. “So, for the 'New Silk Road' vision to realize its potential, it is critical that the Afghan government and its neighbors take ownership of the effort.”

Editor's note:

Joshua Kucera is a Washington, DC,-based writer who specializes in security issues in Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East. He is the editor of EurasiaNet's Bug Pit blog.

Pakistan: Pakistan rejects German spying allegations

Source: IRNA

Islamabad,Nov 1, IRNA – Pakistani officials have rejected a German newspaper report that country’s top intelligence agency spied on German security forces in Afghanistan, media report said here Monday.

Daily ‘Dawn’ reported that Germany's foreign intelligence service, the Bundes Nachrichten Dienst (BND) warned its interior ministry that Pakistan had spied on 180 German police officers deployed in Afghanistan to train locals.

A Pakistani foreign ministry official has been quoted as saying, “The report is ridiculous and useless”.

Pakistan Army spokesman Major-General Athar Abbas has also rejected the report adding the report was not worth commenting on.

The United States has long suspected Pakistan, or elements within the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), of supporting militant groups in order to increase its influence in Afghanistan, particularly after Nato troops leave in 2014.

US Admiral Mike Mullen, before retiring as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff had said that Pakistani intelligence supported Taliban linked Haqqani network in an attack on US embassy in Kabul.

Pakistan says it has sacrificed more than any other country that joined the US war on terror after the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.

Kyrgyzstan: Almazbek Atambaev - A Political Chameleon In Kyrgyz Fashion

RFE/RL Copyright (c) 2011. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.

Almazbek Atambaev: A Political Chameleon In Kyrgyz Fashion

By Bruce Pannier

Almazbek Atambaev, leader of Kyrgyzstan's Social Democratic Party, looks set to become the country's fourth president after cruising to a comfortable first-round victory on October 30.

Now the real test comes -- guiding a people weighed down by a dismal economy and deep social divisions into an uncertain future. And gauging the direction the 55-year-old will take during his six-year term is no easy task.

A look at the former prime minister's track record reveals a man adept at changing tack depending on which way the political winds are blowing.

Atambaev helped found the Social-Democratic Party in 1993, but really became a prominent politician in Kyrgyzstan some 10 years later.

After the overthrow of Kyrgyzstan's first president, Askar Akaev, in March 2005 Atambaev was a leading critic of Akaev's successor -- Kurmanbek Bakiev.

But Atambaev went on to become the acting minister of industry, trade, and tourism under Bakiev. The position did not last long; he soon departed the government and became a co-leader of the opposition "For Reforms In Kyrgyzstan" movement in 2006.

Soon enough, Atambaev the Bakiev critic was back, lashing out against the president's passiveness ahead of a mass political rally that same year, when he rejected the notion of entering into negotiations with Bakiev, whom he described as "a political corpse."

Poisoning Incident

By the spring of 2007, he was again in Bakiev's government, this time as prime minster. Atambaev vowed to be the "voice of the opposition in the Kyrgyz government," but that pledge was never fulfilled.

This was in part because he was absent from his post for weeks after claiming he had been poisoned. Kyrgyz and Turkish doctors confirmed he was poisoned but could never say what had poisoned him, and by late autumn he was ousted.

Atambaev's political star rose again in 2010 when popular protests helped oust former president Kurmanbek Bakiev.

​​Atambaev's premiership is not associated with high accomplishments. Nonetheless, during his time in office a major development took place in that Bakiev managed to create the pro-presidential Ak-Jol party.

Ak-Jol went on to take the majority of seats in a snap parliamentary election, a campaign in which Atambaev again presented himself as a leading opposition figure.

He connected his ouster, just a month before the December 2007 poll, to his stance as an oppositionist. At the time, he called for the authorities to "hold fair elections" because "we know how the dirty 2005 elections ended."

In 2009, Atambaev took the opportunity to again take on Bakiev, running against him in presidential elections that July. But he disappointed supporters on election day by announcing he was withdrawing from the race.

The reason he gave for his withdrawal was that the elections were "being conducted in a dirty fashion."

A Prophetic Message

"The authorities, sensing defeat, are playing games [with the vote]," he said. "The authorities will lose without a doubt. The question is: Will people's voice be heard."

His message proved prophetic, when less than a year later angry crowds in Bishkek forced Bakiev from power.

But in the run-up to the presidential election on October 30, it was Atambaev's opponents who were slinging mud, claiming he had misused administrative resources during his campaign.

Atambaev was part of the interim government that took over after Bakiev was ousted.

He helped draft the country's new constitution for a parliamentary system of government, approved in a national referendum in late June 2010.

But he was unable to form a coalition government after parliamentary elections last year, showing he did not enjoy total support within parliament.

Since being named prime minister, Atambaev has publicly shown a preference for Russia, but cautiously balanced his statements with kind words about China and the United States.

He has vowed not to renew the lease for the U.S. military to use the Manas air base when it expires in 2014 and he worked for Kyrgyzstan's entry into the Customs Union for the Commonwealth of Independent States, which was approved earlier this month

Africa: Is Africa being colonised again?

New powers such as India are accused of buying land cheaply in some African nations, evicting local communities and adding to the food insecurity. Is Africa being colonised again?

Turkey: Turkey’s Never-Ending Kurdish Question

Source: ISN

AKP’s success has been based on its domination of the Turkish centre ground, and if that centre ground is against making concessions to the Kurds, it will be hard for the party to move any further than it has, even if it wants to.

By Djene Rhys Bajalan for openDemocracy

---

Even the most ardent sceptic has, at least grudgingly, to concede that since being elected in 2002, Turkey’s Justice and Development Party, better known by its Turkish acronym AKP (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi), has spearheaded significant reforms to both the economy and political system of Turkey. Turkey’s economic transformation is certainly impressive, with real GDP growth averaging 4.84 between 2002 and 2010. And it’s not only on paper that the Turkish ‘miracle’ can be observed. Anyone who has visited Turkey will immediately be struck by the extent to which the country is beginning to look like part of the developed world. New York-style skyscrapers are sprouting up in many of Turkey’s major cities, while brand new luxury housing developments are being built on lands once occupied by impoverished migrants from the villages of Anatolia. Turkish society is also spending. The credit card is ubiquitous and anything from a new HD TV to the household groceries can be bought on credit, or as the Turks call it taksit. At the weekends, the new gargantuan shopping centres, which nowadays seem to number almost as many as Turkey’s mosques, are packed full of Turks eager to burn their hard earned cash on the trendiest brands and the latest mobile-phones.

Indeed, this consumerism is not restricted to the ‘westernised’ classes; those with more traditional moral inclinations too can partake in Turkey’s newly found prosperity with, for example, religiously conservative young girls lapping up such innovations as the ‘ designer headscarf’. Naysayers may quibble over the extent that the AKP can really take the credit for these changes. The origins of Turkey’s rapid development can be traced back to the policies of economic liberalisation pursed by the Prime Minister (and later President) Turgut Özal in the 1980s, while the economic recovery that followed the 2001 Stock Market Crash was masterminded by World Bank technocrat Kemal Derviş, who served as Finance Minister between 2001-2002.

Nevertheless, the AKP has provided something that previous Turkish governments have not: stability. Weak coalition governments and military interference in civilian matters were the bane of Turkish politics in the 1990s. Today, however, the AKP’s position seems secure and it is providing the strong leadership that the country lacked in previous decades. The once fragmented political field in Turkey has now slimmed down to four major parties all representing significant sections of society.

The AKP’s total domination of Turkish politics is, of course, not necessarily a positive thing in itself. However, despite fears that the ‘Islamist’ AKP might attempt to turn Turkey into a new Iran, the party has implemented a number of significant measures to bring Turkish legal and political structures in line with European Union standards, to reduce the influence of the military and to reform the authoritarian 1980 constitution. Critics may again point out that the pace of democratisation has slowed since AKP’s landslide 2007 electoral victory. Nevertheless, the achievements of the new government have won praise from around the world and given Turkish people a new found confidence to project their political influence across the Middle East. Indeed, Prime Minister Tayyip Recep Erdoğan has taken the recent ‘Arab Spring’ in his stride, siding with the ‘Arab street’ against the authoritarian regimes (quite in contrast to his government’s attitude towards the 2009 protests in Iran). These developments have led to renewed interest in Turkey and its role in international affairs. However, while Erdoğan has been championing the cause of Arab democracy, events at home have the potential to upset the apple cart, most notably the continuing discontent of Turkey’s Kurdish population.

The Kurdish vote

As part of the government’s efforts at democratisation, Erdoğan spearheaded efforts to improve relations with the Kurds. In 2005 while in Diyarbakir, the spiritual capital of ‘Turkish Kurdistan’, he confessed that ‘mistakes’ had been made with regard to the Kurds and that his government would work to rectify them. Gestures were made: a Kurdish TV channel was opened, Kurdish courses were set up at some state universities in Turkey’s southeast and restrictions on Kurdish culture were eased. The result was that the AKP saw an increase in its share of the Kurdish vote in both the 2004 local elections and the 2007 general election. Indeed, AKP supporters like to point out that the party is, in fact, the largest Kurdish political party and that a number of its leading political figures are of Kurdish origin. These claims are not untrue. Yet, the question rumbles on and recent months have only seen things get worse.

Armed struggle

2011 has witnessed an increase in activities of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an armed group founded in 1978 and that has been waging an armed struggle against Turkish authorities (as well as rival Kurdish groups) since 1984. This latest upsurge in violence culminated in the deaths of 24 Turkish soldiers in mid-October 2011 (the worst loss of life for the military since 1993). These deaths provoked a mass out-pouring of public anger against the ‘terrorists’ with demonstrations taking place across western Turkey. Indeed, Turkish public opinion was incensed by news agency Reuters’ refusal to label the PKK a terrorist organisation. At the same time, in the dusty towns of Kurdish Anatolia demonstrators also took to the street, with messages of support for both ‘those in the mountains’ as well as the jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.

These events have exposed an increasing Kurdish-Turkish polarisation. For years Turkish political leaders have claimed that the terrorists did not represent the Kurds and that there was no social discord between Kurds and Turks. However, these claims are becoming unsustainable in face of the hard realities. In 2009 when a group of PKK activists descended from their mountain camps in response to government calls for peace, they were greeted by Kurds on the Iraqi-Turkish border as heroes. This triggered a harsh reaction in both the media and amongst the Turkish public who see the PKK as ‘baby killers’. The idea that anyone could support the PKK is an anathema to many Turks. Yet, in the same year, while visiting Hakkari, a town located in Turkey’s south-eastern corner close to the borders with Iran and Iraq, I could not help but notice the sympathy that many Kurds had for the PKK, known to locals simply as ‘the organisation’. I observed a group of children playing a Kurdish version of the classic children’s game ‘Cowboys and Indians’ – “Guerrillas and Soldiers” – in which the Guerrillas were most definitely the ‘good guys’. I also overheard discussions amongst the older generation about ‘martyrs’, a term that in western Turkey is reserved for those Turkish soldiers who have lost their lives in the struggle against ‘separatist terror’. The difference was that in Hakkari ‘martyrs’ referred to those PKK militants who had been killed by security forces.

Obstacles to peace

The most recent clashes have done nothing to increase understanding between the two sides. Even if one gives the benefit of the doubt to the AKP and assumes that it is serious about making peace with the Kurds, two major obstacles remain. The first is the AKP’s paternalistic attitude towards the Kurds. One of the major deficiencies of the AKP’s Kurdish initiatives has been its failure not only to engage with the PKK, but also the elected representatives of Kurdish nationalism. The Democratic Society Party (DTP) and, after its closure on the grounds that it was a front for the PKK in late 2009, the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), have been left out of these peace initiatives. On the face of it, the AKP claims that this has been because both the DTP and BDP have failed to condemn the PKK as terrorists. Yet, one might question the value of a Kurdish peace initiative which does not endeavour to include the side you wish to make peace with!

The 2011 elections saw a surge in support for the BDP, demonstrating that AKP’s policies towards the Kurds have been losing support. As one Kurdish journalist informed me, “allowing us a few of our basic rights and distributing some washing machines to Kurdish villages is not going to end the decades long Kurdish struggle.” Worse still, recent years have seen representatives of Kurdish parties been thrown in jail and cases opened again Kurdish parliamentarians. Even the mild mannered Turkish academic Büsra Ersanlı, who has for years attempted to bridge the gap between Kurds and Turks, has recently come under police pressure. To many Kurds, all this is indicative of a conspiracy to silence the Kurdish movement. Erdoğan’s forthright support for the Arab spring has only heightened anger, with many regarding the Prime Minister’s stance as hypocritical.

Public opinion

The second major problem is public opinion in Turkey. Lütfi Fikri Bey, an eminent opposition political figure in the early twentieth century once observed that in Turkey there was no such thing as ‘public opinion’ only ‘public sensitivities’. There is a certain element of truth to this statement, even today. Turkey is a highly nationalistic society and is prone to outbursts of public hysteria whenever there are perceived threats to the Republic. If the AKP has an Achilles heel, it is ‘nationalism’, and the party certainly does not want to accused of betraying the country or being soft on the highly emotional subject of terrorism, especially when Television channels are carrying heart-breaking pictures of young Turkish soldiers being returned to their families in body bags. Hence, the shift in its stance towards taking a harder line with the Kurdish political movement is an outcome of AKP’s populist instincts.

Many Turks feel that the Kurdish initiative has only emboldened Kurdish nationalism, and that Kurds are ungrateful to the Republic. This hostility was exposed by the response of some to the tragic earthquake in Van which occurred on October 23. One TV journalist stated on live television that ‘even though it is Van, a pain is great’, while ATV’s Müge Anlı enraged many Kurds by angrily claiming that one day the Kurds were ‘hunting our soldiers like birds’ and then (after the earthquake) ‘running to them for help’. Political leaders from right to left have urged people not to use the Van earthquake for ‘separatist ends’. However, such statements as well as the response of political leaders only prove the existence of a gulf between Kurds and Turks. It is difficult to generalise about Turkish opinion, but perhaps Müge Anlı’s angry statements merely articulated what many Turks are thinking. The Van earthquake has exposed more than just the poor standards of construction in Eastern Anatolia. It has brought to the fore the social divisions between Kurds and Turks.

So what are the prospects of overcoming these obstacles to the resolution of the Kurdish question? It is perhaps too early to tell. The Van earthquake has the potential to both promote understanding and deepen divisions. Many ordinary Turks have shown great kindness and generosity towards the victims of the earthquake. Unfortunately, a few have sent such items as stones, sticks and Turkish flags.

Ultimately, meaningful change will take strong, and more importantly brave, leadership. Such leadership will have to integrate the representatives of Kurdish nationalism into the peace process, while simultaneously selling this to the Turkish public. It is unclear whether the AKP can do this. AKP’s success has been based on its domination of the Turkish centre ground, and if that centre ground is against making concessions to the Kurds, it will be hard for the party to move any further than it has, even if it wants to. While Turkey seems to be, in many ways, closer to a permanent resolution of the Kurdish question than at any time in its history, there is still a long way to go, and the most difficult steps, including making peace with those with whom the state has been at war have yet to be taken. However, the long term benefits for Turkey of peace with the Kurds far outweigh any short term political discomfort.

This article originally appeared on openDemocracy.net under a Creative Commons licence.

Mexico: Absence of protection of journalists highlighted before IACHR

Sources: IFEX and ARTICLE 19

(ARTICLE 19/IFEX) - Washington, D.C 31.10.11 - Mexico is the fifth most dangerous country in the world for journalists, with 70 killed since 2000 and 13 still disappeared. In light of the worrying level of violence against journalists played out against a backdrop of impunity, ARTICLE 19's Mexico and Central America Office made a submission before the Inter American Commission of Human Rights 143 session, on October 27th 2011.

In the submission, the cycle of violence against journalists coupled with the failure of the government to provide journalists and media workers with minimum levels of protection - despite the introduction of the protection decree in 2010 - were highlighted by the organisation as a serious cause for concern. The submission also highlights how violent attacks against the press have resulted in a chilling effect on the media in several cities, especially those gripped by the ongoing public security crisis.

"The climate of fear which has gripped certain cities, such as Laredo and Apaztingan discourages both the media and the relatives of the victims to speak out on cases of disappeared or murdered journalists. In contrast, impunity is fuelling this cycle of violence, as it encourages the perpetrators of these attacks to commit future attacks. All these factors, coupled with the lack of commitment from the Mexican government to seriously address these issues has resulted in the media - especially local media - resorting to self-censorship as a form of protection," said Dario Ramirez, Director, Mexico and Central America Office, ARTICLE 19.

Since February 2010, when the Interior Ministry first called for a consultation on the the creation of a protection mechanism for journalists, at least 15 journalists have been killed, 3 journalists disappeared and there have been 19 cases of attacks against media offices with explosives.

"As an organisation working on the frontline, the actions taken by the Mexican State in the last twelve months aimed at protecting journalists are clearly insufficient. Therefore we call upon the Mexican government to release all information relating to the implementation of the protection decree in order to assess the shortfalls," continued Ramirez.

At the hearing, ARTICLE 19 presented cases of violence against journalists as well as listed the Mexican government's unfulfilled commitments in relation to the creation of an effective mechanism to protect journalists. This protection mechanism - which excludes potential beneficiaries in the decision-making process - does not comply with the principles of urgency required by the present situation faced by the press.

ARTICLE 19 notes several deficiencies in the investigation of cases, including the complete absence of a rapid response protocol or a specific strategy aimed at investigating cases of disappeared journalists and a tendency to prejudge the motives and discredit journalists before the investigation even begins.

South Africa: Can the Police Take all the Credit for Reductions in Crime?

Source: ISS

Can the Police Take all the Credit for Reductions in Crime?

Johan Burger, Senior Researcher, Crime and Justice Programme, ISS Pretoria Office

The 2010/11 South African Police Service (SAPS) crime statistics show a 2,4% decrease in crime. In real terms this means that the police recorded 50 400 fewer serious crimes in 2010/11 than they did in the previous financial year. This includes decreases in murder (5,3%), attempted murder (11%), aggravated robbery (10,8%) and, for the first time in eight years, also a 10,1% decrease in house robbery.

There is sufficient independent corroboration for these positive downward trends, for them to be credible. The 2011 Grant Thornton International Business Report, that reflects the findings of a survey of South African business owners, reported a 5% decrease in ‘contact crime’ victimization compared to the previous year, and 34% decrease since the first survey in 2007. In addition, the Consumer Goods Council of South Africa reported a 43% decrease in ‘armed robbery’ and 27% in burglary in the retail industry in 2010/11. The South African Insurance Association (made up of a number of insurance providers) also reported decreases in claims for crimes such as vehicle hijackings (a reduction of between 19-31%), business robberies (down between 19-28%) and house robberies (down between 4-21%).

Shortly after the latest release of the crime statistics the National Commissioner of the SAPS, General Bheki Cele, told the South African National Editors Forum (SANEF) that ‘… we, in the SAPS, have been enjoying, arguably, our best run of uninterrupted good media coverage since our formation in 1995.’ Cele was claiming credit for the reduction in crime and gave no indication that he believed that other social factors might have contributed to the change.

Meanwhile, in his speech during the release of the crime statistics on 8 September, the Minister of Police, Nathi Mthetwa, acknowledged the complexities of crime and its solutions when he pointed to the effect of poverty and social dysfunction on crime levels, stating that:

“The battle against crime cannot be separated from the war on want. In the main, incidents of contact crime such as murder, grievous bodily harm and rape occur among acquaintances in poor communities where living and entertainment environments do not allow for decent family and social life.”

A large body of research shows that the risk factors for crime include social, economic and personal factors. The police recognize this and have been at pains to point out in their annual reports that poor social conditions are in large measure to blame for so-called social contact crimes (murder and attempted murder, serious and common assault, and sexual offences). For example, according to the police 65% of murders are committed within or as a result of domestic conflict, alcohol and drug abuse, and associated conditions. Only about 16% of murders are committed in the execution of other crimes such as robbery.

This analysis was reflected in policy and strategy documents during the mid and late 1990’s, including the National Crime Prevention Strategy (NCPS) of 1996 and the South African White Paper on Safety and Security of 1998. The White Paper set out the role of the police in combating crime, which included, (i) conducting criminal investigations, (ii) active visible policing and (iii) providing a service to victims of crime. Since it cannot be expected of the police to address the social, economic and personal factors that influence crime rates, the police need to focus on what the White Paper refers to as ‘crime prevention through effective criminal justice’. According to the White Paper an effective criminal justice system can contribute to crime prevention by making crime more risky and less rewarding. Thus the role of the police, as an integral part of the criminal justice system, should be to create a strong deterrent against crime and lawlessness. While this alone is insufficient to address high levels of crime, it is an integral factor in reducing crime.

The idea that crime can be deterred by policing is based both on the notion that through visible policing (for example) the police can reduce opportunities for crime to be committed. In addition, the police have an essential role to play in increasingly the certainty that offenders will be apprehended so that the criminal justice process can begin and which can ultimately result in a sentence being passed by the courts. Without such certainty, it is unlikely that would-be offenders will be deterred by the possibility of punitive sentences. Essentially what this tells us is that the impact of the police on crime levels are largely limited to reactive policing (criminal investigations and law enforcement), and proactive policing (visible policing, law enforcement and order maintenance).

Yet, it is precisely in creating this certainty that the police fall short. According to the SAPS annual report the police achieved only a 27% detection rate and a 14% conviction rate for murder, this is despite the fact that their own analysis shows that in nearly all (up to 80%) of murder cases the victim and perpetrator knew each other. For attempted murder cases, where the victim is able to identify the perpetrator, the detection rate is 44%, but the conviction rate remains the same (14%). In aggravated robbery and common robbery cases the detection rates are 16% and 36% respectively and the conviction rates a lowly 11% and 20%. This clearly points to a need for improvements in the collection and analysis of evidence, and the preparation of cases for consideration by prosecutors.
Based on this brief exposition it should be clear why it is both impractical and unfair to require the police to achieve an annual reduction of 7-10% (or even the amended target of 4-7%) in ‘contact crime’, that includes ‘social contact crimes’, as is currently the case. Rather the targets for the police should be to improve their detection and conviction rates. It is important for politicians and the public to remember that the fact that the police are the custodians of the official crime statistics does not make them any more or less responsible for the crimes they keep record of. This also means that as much as we cannot blame only the police for crime increases, we cannot credit them alone for crime reductions, but we should hold them accountable to ensure that offenders are apprehended and brought to justice.

Security: Egyptian Writer 'Exposes' the Influence of the Muslim Brotherhood within Obama Administration

SOURCE FamilySecurityMatters.org

Dr. Essam Abdallah, an Egyptian liberal intellectual, today stated in his article published on FamilySecurityMatters.org's website, that the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR), Hamas, Hezbollah, the Iranian regime and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Syria, Tunisia, Libya and Jordan now comprise what is becoming the greatest Islamist radical lobby ever to penetrate and infiltrate the White House, Congress, the State Department and the main decision making centers of the US government.

Dr. Abdallah says that "all of this is happening at a time when the US government is going through its most strategically dangerous period in modern times because of its need to confront the Iranian Mullahs regime, which is expanding in the Middle East, as well as penetrating the United States, via powerful and influential allies." He also points out that Islamist dominance is spreading throughout the Mediterranean, and then makes the explosive charge that "these developments wouldn't have happened without the approval of the United States."

Dr. Abdallah also points out that, at the same time, the visit of Maronite Patriarch (the Maronites are an Eastern rite Catholic Church) Rahi to Washington was canceled while Coptic Christian churches are being destroyed in Egypt, and "Coptic demonstrators are massacred at Maspero in Cairo by the Egyptian military, demonstrating that the goal is to suppress Christians in the Middle East, who are…paying a high price for the revolts of the Arab Spring." Millions of Iraqi and Middle Eastern Christians are fleeing their homelands as a result of events in Iraq, and some are even facing not only ethnic cleansing but a form of genocide.

In commenting on Dr. Abdallah's article, Carol Taber, President of FamilySecurityMatters.org, said this. "My question to this administration is who has orchestrated this mishandling of Middle Eastern policy in a manner that is so dangerous to the interests of the United States? Why do we seem to be siding with Islamist forces that are dedicated to the Islamization of the Middle East, and not to other elements and people who are dedicated to those values America holds dear? And why?"

The views expressed by authors or media organisations other than Mike Hitchen, do not necessarily reflect the views of Mike Hitchen Online. This blog aims to present a wide spectrum of opinion and analysis. The source of every article is prominently displayed and should be considered when reading.

Mining: Tackling the True Cost of Gold

SOURCE IPEN

Delegates from more than 120 countries are being reminded of the true cost of gold mining on the first day of a meeting to negotiate a global mercury treaty. Discussions focused on small-scale mining since it is the largest deliberate use of mercury.

While delegates debated mercury control and economic benefits of the activity, civil society representatives and Indigenous Peoples distributed postcards with chocolate gold coins asking, "What is the true price of gold?" The card cited data from the International Labour Organisation stating that in Africa, children under the age of 18 may constitute up to 30%-50% of the entire small-scale gold mining workforce.

"Gold mining in poor communities is sweet for gold traders but bitter for children," said Yuyun Ismawati, Indonesia Toxics Free Network and IPEN. "The price of gold will never equal the cost of brain damage, contaminated communities, and the impacts of child labor."

ILO recently released a report which identified about 115 million of children working in hazardous works and mining considered as one of the hazardous workplaces for children. More than half of the working children were clinically diagnosed with severe mercury intoxication.[1]

Mercury can permanently damage the brain and kid­neys and has been shown to affect a developing fetus, even months after the mother's exposure. The large use of mercury in small scale gold mining coupled with the involvement of women and children raise serious health concerns.

"The treaty needs a public health strategy to address the harms in mining communities, particularly for women and children," said Manny Calonzo, IPEN co-chair. "This includes cleaning up the toxic mess that mining leaves behind."

Small-scale gold mining also raises concerns about violations of other UN treaties concerning human rights, including the Convention on Rights of the Child which enshrines the right of the child to the highest attainable standard of health and recognizes the right to be protected from economic exploitation and from work that is likely to be hazardous.[2]

"Delegates must find the heart to ensure the mercury treaty protects children from economic slavery and ensures their right to a healthy future," said Tom BK Goldtooth, a member of the Global Indigenous Peoples Caucus and director of the Indigenous Environmental Network. Indigenous Peoples at the Nairobi meeting are lifting the need for strong treaty language recognizing the human rights dimensions of anthropogenic mercury contamination.

The meeting this week marks the third intergovernmental negotiating meeting in a series of five meetings which will culminate in a diplomatic conference in 2013 to sign the treaty. The negotiation is being coordinated by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).[3] For more information about mercury, please see: http://www.ipen.org/ipenweb/documents/book/ipen%20mercury%20booklet_s.pdf

War Crimes: UN war crimes tribunal jails Serb leader again over contempt of court

UN - The United Nations war crimes tribunal for the Balkan conflicts of the 1990s today sentenced the leader of the Serb Radical Party – already facing trial on charges of crimes against humanity – to 18 months in jail after finding him guilty of contempt of court for a second time.

Vojislav Šešelj will serve the prison term concurrently with the 15-month jail sentence he was given by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in May last year – in both cases for disclosing information relating to protected witnesses in his trial.

A third contempt of court case for alleged similar actions by Mr. Šešelj is currently pending.

Mr. Šešelj, who had refused to enter a plea to the charges he was convicted of today, has previously admitted to writing a book which detailed the real names, occupations and residences of 11 protected witnesses in his trial.

The ICTY’s trial chamber, announcing its decision, said Mr. Šešelj had disclosed information about the witnesses “intentionally, [and] with the knowledge that by doing so, he was violating decisions” of the court.

Calling this action “a serious interference with the administration of justice,” the judges said they had also considered Mr. Šešelj’s lack of remorse in determining the sentence, as well as the fact that the book was also in electronic form and thus more widely available.

The ICTY said it was also hoping to “discourage this type of behaviour” to try to avoid a repeat by either Mr. Šešelj or anyone else involved in proceedings before the tribunal, which is based in The Hague in the Netherlands.

Mr. Šešelj is on trial at the ICTY on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity for his alleged role in crimes committed between 1991 and 1994 against non-Serbs living in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Vojvodina, Serbia.

Human Trafficking: UN agencies join forces to combat human trafficking and migrant smuggling

The United Nations agencies that deal with helping refugees and with fighting crime signed a joint agreement today to work together more closely to combat human trafficking and migrant smuggling.

The memorandum of understanding, signed by the Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Yury Fedotov and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) António Guterres, aims to combine the work of both entities in overlapping issues to more effectively target criminals involved in human trafficking and to better protect their victims.

“UNODC’s mandate in combating organized crime is complementary to UNHCR’s work of protecting refugees. As we have often seen with human trafficking and migrant smuggling, criminals prey on society’s most vulnerable,” said Mr. Fedotov at the signing in New York.

“Refugees, in search of a better life, can become victims of these criminals and it’s important that we offer coordinated assistance to those who need it the most.”

“The 21st century is the century of people on the move. Climate change, food insecurity, urbanization, population growth, all these trends are combining and forcing people to move and there are complex protection gaps,” Mr. Guterres said, adding that this opens opportunities for illegal and forced migration.

“Money moves freely, goods tend to move more or less freely, but there are enormous obstacles for the movement of people,” he said, stressing that human trafficking presents a situation where human rights are at their most vulnerable.

“We need to make sure that we crack down on the criminals that perpetuate this new form of slavery and protect their victims, which is why working together is so relevant for us,” he said.

Mr. Guterres also called on the international community to increase its investment to combat human trafficking in the same way that it has invested in fighting drug trafficking saying this type of crime is just as relevant and also needs and urgent response and commitment.

The agreement will focus on four defined regions based on the agencies’ work: Latin America, the Gulf of Aden, Afghanistan and its bordering countries, and North Africa.

Intelligence: Anna Chapman in action? FBI 'Ghost stories' videos ft. Russian spies

In an eerily timed release, the Federal Bureau of Investigations has published "troves" of photos and videos relating to what they call Operation Ghost Stories, a decade-long investigation into a group of Russian spies living and working in the US.

Everything about the release -- the name of the operation, the release on Halloween -- speaks of deliberation. Despite the fact that the alleged spies are no longer on US soil, and no charges can be filed against them, the FBI wants to make sure the subject matter is not forgotten. In the videos, viewers can see a montage of surveillance tapes showing covert meetings, exchanges of documents in the subway, hidden cash troves in gardens and much more. It was, according to the FBI, one of the longest operations in recent history -- and one that lets all foreign intelligence agencies know "that espionage threats to the US will not be tolerated." The term "Cold War" is mentioned quite a lot in the official statement on the FBI's website -- and the infamous "Cambridge Five" are also remembered.

Altogether, it paints a very bleak picture: Russia is still the bogeyman, and Halloween is a perfect time to remind everyone of it. Why else would the FBI wait for months before releasing this information? The arrests were made in June 2010, and within weeks all those who stood trial were found guilty of being unregistered agents of a foreign government and swapped for four prisoners from Russia. Now, over a year later, the FBI suddenly decides to make its surveillance material public?

Eritrea: Help People, Not the Eritrean Dictator

By Mirjam van Reisen*
Courtesy IDN-InDepth NewsViewpoint

The European Union had better change its policy towards Eritrea. The people would be better off if the EU were to spend its allocated funds for Eritrea on housing and education of the Eritrean refugees in Sudan, South Sudan, Libya, Egypt or Yemen.

BRUSSELS (IDN) - Should the European Union help a merciless dictator or come to the aid of refugees? I think the answer is obvious. We are talking about Eritrea, the open air prison in the East of Africa.

This small country of about 6 million inhabitants on the shore of the Red Sea is ruled by the autocrat Isaias Afewerki since independence in 1991. At the Africa conference of the Evert Vermeer Stichting (EVS) in The Hague on October 29, I urged EU Development Commissioner Andris Piebalgs to reconsider his policy before spending the remaining tens of millions of euros of his budget for Eritrea.

Piebalgs has put democracy in a central place in the policy communication 'Agenda for Change' he presented on October 13 with a view to increasing the impact of EU development policy. The document states on its first pages prominently that "EU general budget support should be linked to the governance situation and political dialogue with the partner country."

It adds: "Should a country loosen its commitment to human rights and democracy, the EU should strengthen its cooperation with the non-state actors and local authorities and use forms of aid that provide the poor with the support they need."

'North Korea of Africa'

Eritrea clearly has no democracy. It doesn't even have a parliament that meets. The constitution has never entered into force. The government has made a habit out of arbitrary detentions, persecution of people with unwanted religions and suppressing the free press.

Eritrea can be considered the 'North Korea of Africa'. President Isaias Afewerki is the head of state and head of the only political party, the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF). He doesn't allow any criticism. Ten ministers that asked for some democracy in September 2001 were never seen again.

Among political prisoners, Dawit Isaac is a very prominent one. This Swedish-Eritrean author and journalist has been locked up since September 2001 in a crackdown on non-sate press that saw all 8 independent newspapers close down.

Although never formally charged, he is apparently in the maximum-security prison in Embatkala, along with 112 other political prisoners, reportedly on the orders of President Issayas Afewerki. The prison is said to have one of the harshest regimes in the country. Rumour has it that he would be set free if the EU spends it subsidy on Eritrea, but that hasn't been the case yet.

No Civil Socieity

Most boys and girls are sent from school to the army. Officially they are to be enlisted for one year, but in practice they have to stay there until their fifties or sixties. Women have to serve in the army as well. Some are used as sex slaves for the leaders. A consequence of this huge army is that there are hardly any Eritrean men and women left for a functioning civil society or for starting a business. What is more, the Eritrean society is suffering from a shortage of workforce, because of the long war with Ethiopia.

A small workforce explains also the current lack of farmers and food. The situation is expected to worsen. As in the neighbouring countries, experts expect famine to follow drought. But Afewerki denies that there are any problems. And as he doesn’t allow collection of data or aid organisations, we can only guess how many people would die of drought and famine.

Open Prison

Leaving the country is very dangerous. Minefields and a shoot-to-kill policy make Eritrea in fact an open air prison. Eritrea ranks among the world's Top 3 with the highest numbers of refugees per capita.

The United Nations Security Council imposed sanctions on Eritrea in December 2009 because, according to findings, Eritrea had provided support to armed groups undermining peace and reconciliation in Somalia. Above all, it had not withdrawn its forces following clashes with Djibouti in June 2008. The Security Council introduced an arms embargo on Eritrea, in addition to travel restrictions on political and military leaders. It also froze their assets.

The European Parliament in a resolution in September 2011 called for Eritrea to be suspended from the Cotonou Agreement, a comprehensive partnership agreement between developing countries and the European Union that includes economic aid. EU was asked to ensure that its development assistance does not benefit the Government of Eritrea but is targeted strictly at the needs of the Eritrean people.

Despite an obvious democracy deficit, the European Union had reserved 122 million euro (172 million dollar) in a multi-annual program for Eritrea. Of this sum of money, tens of millions are still unspent. How much of this program has been implemented in Eritrea – and how? Has all the spending been legal? Considering that millions of euros have been spent on supporting a dictator, it can be safely presumed that some rules have been breached.

The crucial question is: what to do with the money that has not yet spent on Eritrea? I think it should be spent for the benefit of the people, and not to the advantage of the dictator.

The European Commission has a particularly important role here, because it is not just another donor, it contributes 20% of the collective EU aid effort. The Commission also acts as a coordinator, convener and policy maker of development cooperation of 27 Member States of the European Union.

In principle, if the European Commission does not spend the earmarked funds, the unspent money remains in its coffers. I strongly urge the EU to reconsider its policy. The money must be used for a better objective, also in Europe's own interest. Many Eritrean refugees seek their way across the Mediterranean or other routes into Europe, to live as illegal immigrants.

What to do?

Therefore, I urge the EU to spend its remaining Eritrea budget on:

a) Housing for refugees in Sudan, South Sudan, Libya, Egypt or Yemen. Presently, the UNHCR cannot cope with the large numbers of refugees from Eritrea. Because of adverse conditions, many of the refugees flee Eritrea, leaving their fate in the hands of 'people smugglers'. Some die crossing the desert or the Mediterranean, some are kidnapped or extorted. Reports are that some people fall victim to organ harvesting, in which knowledgeable sources allege the Eritrean government plays a role.

b) Education of young refugees from Eritrea. The European Commission could also finance scholarships for bright Eritrean youngsters to attend African universities. In the camps children now grow up only to join the ranks of another lost generation. But if they are educated and trained well, they might one day return home and help build infrastructure for a democratic and functioning society. President Isaias Afewerki will surely die one day, which would open up opportunities for change. This in turn would require the informed people.

It seems hard to visualise alternatives, such as working with non-state actors inside Eritrea to help the poor people. Aid organisations have left the country one by one. There is almost no civil society or company outside the army. The ruler has ordered that only one civil organisation for men, one for women and one for youngsters is just about enough for the country.

Spending money on the Eritrean government looks out of question to me. For some reason, Eritrea has managed to remain out of the focus of world attention, but the world will one day wake up and be outraged by massive human rights violations in Eritrea. The current situation cannot last any longer.

To conclude, I propose that the European Commission's communication Agenda for Change is also perceived as an agenda for change in Eritrea. That would really help people who are leaving Eritrea, and even more the people living in Eritrea.

*Dr Mirjam van Reisen is professor at the Netherlands' Tilburg University, and holds the chair for International Social Responsibility, endowed by the Marga Klompé Foundation, the first female government minister in the Netherlands. She is the founder and director of Brussels-based Europe External Policy Advisors (EEPA), and a member of the coordinating committee of Social Watch.

Thought For The Day: Nov 01, 2011

Gimmicky gadgets and world leaders, are never quite as good as the packaging promises